Home »Money and Banking » World » CEE forex markets: Zloty drops as weak GDP boosts rate cut hopes

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  • Dec 2nd, 2012
  • Comments Off on CEE forex markets: Zloty drops as weak GDP boosts rate cut hopes
The Polish zloty fell on Friday as weak output data in Central Europe's biggest economy raised the prospect that the central bank will ease monetary policy more rapidly than had been expected. The forint, which is often the most volatile unit in the region, joined the fall after Hungary signed a declaration of intent to buy E.ON's local gas business, for which it may need to buy foreign currency.

The zloty eased 0.4 percent against the euro to 4.106, while the forint shed a quarter percent to trade at 280.4. The Czech crown was flat at 25.189 against the euro. Poland said its economy grew 1.4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. That was below the 1.8 percent forecast by analysts and slower than 2.3 percent growth in the second quarter.

Analysts said this would reinforce the case for more rate cuts by the Polish central bank, which holds its next meeting on December 4-5. Expectations for cuts have kept 10-year bond yields close to record lows at 3.95 percent. Nordea said in a note that the lowest growth in over three years would encourage the central bank to deliver more rate cuts than they have suggested so far.

"But it should not put much negative pressure on the PLN (zloty), which remains to be driven mainly by global risk perception," Nordea analyst Piotr Bujak said in the note. Before the data, analysts had projected a 25 basis point cut in the bank's 4.5 percent main rate next week. Dealers said the euro's retreat against the dollar , which often dents risk appetite, could also play a role in the weakening of the region's currencies.

Some volatility near year-end might be expected, however, dealers said, after 2012 gains of 12 percent by the forint and 9 percent by the zloty on the back of cheap money pumped into global markets by the US and European central banks.

"The small euro weakening could explain the forint's move today or the E.ON deal about which some in the market could think that it may generate some euro buying," one Budapest-based currency dealer said. "But these are no more than guesses." Equity markets in the region shrugged off the euro's retreat, with Budapest's main index firming 0.9 percent and Prague 0.6 percent. Warsaw was flat. Hungarian government bonds, boosted by central bank rate cuts in the past month, were treading water.

Polish bond prices stayed near record highs. "The (GDP) data justifies and makes it easier for the central bankers to consider a rate cut of 50 basis points in December ... before, such a large cut was not realistic, I believe that it is now possible," said Marek Kaczor, chief fixed income dealer at Bank PKO BP.

Copyright Reuters, 2012


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